Post-Election Campaign Narrative

In this post, I analyze the recent Congressional race in Ohio’s 1st district.

Post Election Reflection

Here is my post election reflection, using data available leading up to 11/23 at 8pm EST.

Final Prediction

Here is my final predicton model, using data available leading up to 11/7 at 4pm EST.

Shocks

Ground Game

Examining Ground Game

Air War

In this post, I look at the effects of campaign ads on predicting US house elections through Extension

Incumbency

In this post, I explore expert electoral ratings, with a particular focus on Incumbency.

Polling

In this post, I look at the relationship between polling and US house voting patterns. I begin with an analysis of midterm forecasting methods from FiveThirtyEight and The Economist and end with a new model for predicting popular vote house share in 2022.

Blog Post #2 - Economy

In this post, I look at the relationship between economic forces and US house voting patterns at the state and national level. As a fundamental part of the campaign environment, the a strong economy can help an incumbent president maintain power in other chambers while a gloomy economy can make the case harder for incumbents.

Blog Post #1 - Introduction

In this post, I explore United States House races from 1948 to the present. I conduct the majority of my analysis through state-wide pooling with a special section at the end for the district I’ll be following, Ohio-01.